{ "schemaVersion": "1.0", "slug": "tesla-semi-2023", "title": "The Tesla Semi thesis, written March 22, 2023", "format": "republish", "theme": "tesla", "topics": [ "Company Assessment", "Tesla Semi" ], "published": "2023-03-22", "asOf": "2026-11-14", "articleUrl": "https://brandonstmartin.com/blog/tesla-semi-2023", "markdownUrl": "https://brandonstmartin.com/blog/tesla-semi-2023.md", "factsUrl": "https://brandonstmartin.com/blog/tesla-semi-2023.facts.json", "takeaways": [ "One claim from the March 22, 2023 paper came true: production trucks offer a 500-mile Long Range, alongside a 325-mile Standard Range, both at 1.7 kWh per mile, as of Tesla’s October 21, 2026 update.", "Four claims came partly true: the Nevada Semi factory, the PepsiCo fleet, the Megacharger, and the Corpus Christi lithium refinery.", "Three claims missed: the 2024 volume target of 50,000 units a year, the $150,000 to $200,000 advertised price, and the 7-cent charging promise.", "The million-mile powertrain guarantee is still too early to call. No published Semi warranty turned up, and the fleet is young.", "Cybertruck was not in production on March 22, 2023. Tesla’s FY2022 10-K listed it as Tooling; the FY2023 10-K says first deliveries came in November 2023." ], "facts": [ { "id": "paper-date", "label": "Original capstone date", "value": "2023-03-22", "unit": "date", "asOf": "2023-03-22", "source": { "name": "BSM, The Tesla Semi thesis", "url": "https://brandonstmartin.com/blog/tesla-semi-2023", "date": "2023-03-22" }, "status": "verified", "note": "MBA capstone, University of the People, BUS 5910, written before any AI tools were used." }, { "id": "lookback-date", "label": "Look-back date", "value": "2026-11", "unit": "month", "asOf": "2026-11-14", "source": { "name": "BSM, 2026 look-back on the Tesla Semi thesis", "url": "https://brandonstmartin.com/blog/tesla-semi-2023", "date": "2026-11-14" }, "status": "verified", "note": "Added when the paper was republished on this site." }, { "id": "cybertruck-tooling-fy2022", "label": "Cybertruck status in the FY2022 annual report", "value": "Tooling", "unit": "status", "asOf": "2023-01-31", "source": { "name": "Tesla Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000095017023001409/tsla-20221231.htm", "date": "2023-01-31" }, "status": "verified", "note": "Listed at Giga Texas with status Tooling. The paper’s line that Tesla began 2023 with new productions of the Cybertruck is incorrect." }, { "id": "cybertruck-first-deliveries-fy2023", "label": "First Cybertruck deliveries", "value": "2023-11", "unit": "month", "asOf": "2024-01-29", "source": { "name": "Tesla Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828024002390/tsla-20231231.htm", "date": "2024-01-29" }, "status": "verified", "note": "The FY2023 10-K says first deliveries came in November 2023. A July 15, 2023 “first production” date was not used: no Tesla IR page or SEC filing was found that states that date." }, { "id": "semi-pilot-through-2024", "label": "Semi production status through 2024", "value": "pilot production", "unit": "status", "asOf": "2025-01-29", "source": { "name": "Tesla Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828025003063/tsla-20241231.htm", "date": "2025-01-29" }, "status": "verified", "note": "Tesla kept the Semi in pilot production through 2024." }, { "id": "nevada-capacity-2026-10-21", "label": "Installed Nevada Semi capacity, October 21, 2026", "value": 25000, "unit": "units per year", "asOf": "2026-10-21", "source": { "name": "Tesla quarterly update, exhibit 99.14, October 21, 2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026066738/exhibit9914.htm", "date": "2026-10-21" }, "status": "verified", "note": "Half of the 50,000-a-year 2024 target discussed on the Q3 2022 call. Volume production began in the third quarter of 2026." }, { "id": "semi-range-production-trucks", "label": "Production Semi range ratings", "value": "325-mile Standard Range and 500-mile Long Range, both at 1.7 kWh per mile", "unit": "text", "asOf": "2026-10-21", "source": { "name": "Tesla quarterly update, exhibit 99.14, October 21, 2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026066738/exhibit9914.htm", "date": "2026-10-21" }, "status": "verified", "note": "In March 2023, Tesla’s Semi page listed about 300 or 500 miles at 82,000 pounds." }, { "id": "texas-lithium-30gwh", "label": "Texas lithium refining capacity listed October 21, 2026", "value": 30, "unit": "GWh", "asOf": "2026-10-21", "source": { "name": "Tesla quarterly update, exhibit 99.14, October 21, 2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026066738/exhibit9914.htm", "date": "2026-10-21" }, "status": "verified", "note": "Listed in early ramp, below the 50 GWh target discussed in the paper." }, { "id": "fy2022-vehicle-production", "label": "Tesla vehicle production in 2022", "value": 1369611, "unit": "vehicles", "asOf": "2023-01-31", "source": { "name": "Tesla Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000095017023001409/tsla-20221231.htm", "date": "2023-01-31" }, "status": "verified", "note": "Deliveries were 1,313,851. The paper’s “1.5 million” annual production figure is overstated for 2022." } ], "disclaimer": "This material is for education and entertainment only. It is not financial advice. Opinions are our own and should be verified independently. Mentioning others' views is not an endorsement. The author holds long-term positions in Tesla, SpaceX and Bitcoin.", "contributors": [ "Brandon St-Martin" ] }