{
  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
  "slug": "starlink-2022",
  "title": "The Starlink operations thesis, written May 18, 2022",
  "format": "republish",
  "theme": "spacex",
  "topics": [
    "Company Assessment",
    "Starlink"
  ],
  "published": "2022-05-18",
  "asOf": "2026-11-14",
  "articleUrl": "https://brandonstmartin.com/blog/starlink-2022",
  "markdownUrl": "https://brandonstmartin.com/blog/starlink-2022.md",
  "factsUrl": "https://brandonstmartin.com/blog/starlink-2022.facts.json",
  "takeaways": [
    "The 4,400-satellite count came true, and ahead of schedule; \"the entire world\" is only partly true because service still depends on licensing.",
    "Coverage except the poles came partly true. The Redmond production rate came true. The $599 kit and $110 monthly service came true as 2022 prices.",
    "The 2022 speed goal missed. U.S. medians fell that year; later figures caught up on download.",
    "The 42,000-satellite authorization came partly true: 12,000 were authorized, and Gen2 has only been partially granted.",
    "Generation Two and the launch cadence came true. The spring 2022 fleet and subscriber snapshot came true, then far exceeded it."
  ],
  "facts": [
    {
      "id": "paper-date",
      "label": "Original presentation date",
      "value": "2022-05-18",
      "unit": "date",
      "asOf": "2022-05-18",
      "source": {
        "name": "BSM, The Starlink operations thesis",
        "url": "https://brandonstmartin.com/blog/starlink-2022",
        "date": "2022-05-18"
      },
      "status": "verified",
      "note": "MBA group project, University of the People, BUS 5116 Operations Management, written before any AI tools were used."
    },
    {
      "id": "lookback-date",
      "label": "Look-back date",
      "value": "2026-11",
      "unit": "month",
      "asOf": "2026-11-14",
      "source": {
        "name": "BSM, 2026 look-back on the Starlink operations thesis",
        "url": "https://brandonstmartin.com/blog/starlink-2022",
        "date": "2026-11-14"
      },
      "status": "verified",
      "note": "Added when the presentation was republished on this site."
    },
    {
      "id": "constellation-nov-2026",
      "label": "Starlink satellites launched and in orbit",
      "value": "13096 launched, 11193 in orbit",
      "unit": "count",
      "asOf": "2026-11-13",
      "source": {
        "name": "Jonathan McDowell's Starlink Statistics",
        "url": "https://planet4589.org/space/con/star/stats.html",
        "date": "2026-11-13"
      },
      "status": "verified",
      "note": "Cited in the November 2026 look-back. The 2022 paper forecast 4,400 satellites by 2024."
    },
    {
      "id": "subscribers-2026-09-30",
      "label": "Starlink consumer subscribers and markets",
      "value": "13.6 million subscribers in 174 countries or markets",
      "unit": "count",
      "asOf": "2026-09-30",
      "source": {
        "name": "Broadband Breakfast, reporting SpaceX figures as of September 30, 2026",
        "url": "https://broadbandbreakfast.com/starlink-reaches-13-6-million-subscribers-globally-as-spacex-revenue-jumps-161/",
        "date": "2026-09-30"
      },
      "status": "verified",
      "note": "The paper described service in 28 countries in May 2022. A May 13, 2022 Starlink update said 32."
    },
    {
      "id": "gen2-authorization-2026",
      "label": "FCC Gen2 second-tranche authorization",
      "value": "15000 authorized; 14988 deferred",
      "unit": "count",
      "asOf": "2026-01-09",
      "source": {
        "name": "FCC DA-26-36A1",
        "url": "https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-26-36A1.txt",
        "date": "2026-01-09"
      },
      "status": "verified",
      "note": "The full 42,000-satellite figure in the 2022 paper is still not fully authorized."
    },
    {
      "id": "consumer-price-2022-03",
      "label": "Starlink consumer kit and monthly service, March 2022",
      "value": "$599 hardware; $110 monthly",
      "unit": "usd",
      "asOf": "2022-03-23",
      "source": {
        "name": "CNBC, March 23, 2022",
        "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/spacex-raises-prices-for-launches-and-starlink-due-to-inflation.html",
        "date": "2022-03-23"
      },
      "status": "verified",
      "note": "Historical advertised prices as written in the presentation and confirmed in the look-back. Current U.S. prices were not listed."
    }
  ],
  "disclaimer": "This material is for education and entertainment only. It is not financial advice. Opinions are our own and should be verified independently. Mentioning others' views is not an endorsement. The author holds long-term positions in Tesla, SpaceX and Bitcoin.",
  "contributors": [
    "Brandon St-Martin"
  ]
}